By a market update there will be a return in the year 2019 from Shayyar Bazar, but due to the Lok Sabha elections and the US economy, the market will also have considerable ups and downs. ET surveyed 26 Head Money Managers and Research Heads of Brokerage houses, most of which have guessed it. He said that the Nifty could go up to 6-17% by December 2019. This means that this year the market will reach the new peak. Top Picks of 2019 include Axis Bank, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Infosys.
The decrease in inflation in 2019, a fall in crude oil and global growth is expected to be dull. This can reduce Bond yields in India. However, due to uncertainty related to the Lok Sabha elections, the fluctuation in the rupee may increase. This information has emerged from another survey among market experts of ET. There were 25 participants in this survey. Most of them said that the benchmark bond yield could fall by 0.25-0.45%. Bond Yield is 7.45% right now. Some participants said that the yield can also go below 7%. At the same time, they expect the rupee to be between 69-73 against the dollar. He told that before the Lok Sabha elections to be held in April-May, the fluctuations in the rupee can be increased.
This market update also clears Volatility in the stock market is expected to increase before the elections. Most participants in the survey said that uncertainty about the Lok Sabha elections has increased after the BJP’s defeat in the recent assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh. Nilesh Shah, MD, Kotak Mahindra AMC said, “The impact of political risk on coming closer from the election will be seen on the market. The biggest concern of the market will be to become a new government after the election and its economic agenda. ”
Most of the money managers involved in the ET poll said that by the end of 2019, the Nifty could be between 11,500 and 12,700. The NSE’s benchmark index closed last Friday at 10,727. The 25 percent participants in the survey estimated 11,500, 17 percent of the Nifty 12,000, 25 percent by 12,500 and 17 percent to 12,700. On August 28 last year, the NSE’s benchmark index touched the lifetime high of 11,760. On August 29, BSE’s benchmark index Sensex rose to a new peak of 38,989.65. In the survey, the Nifty is estimated to go upwards of 14,000 and below to 11,000. A participant did not say anything about the decline in benchmark indices.
Market managers said that the Lok Sabha elections, slowdown in America and the profit growth of Indian companies and there are risks like delay in growth. SBI Kirti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Advisor, SBI said, “Maybe interest rates may be cut this year.” He said that the benchmark Yield will remain within a radius and it can remain in decline. Ghosh said that the inflation rate will remain at the lower level, which will be a pleasant surprise for the market.
In the survey on rupees and bonds, five participants said that the benchmark bond yield could fall below the psychological level of 7%. These include Bank of Baroda, Bank of America, Lakshmi Vilas Bank, Miray Asset and Trust Capital. Inflation was at 17 months in November 2018 with 2.33 percent. It is less than the Reserve Bank’s estimates. In the Monetary Policy of August 2018, the Reserve Bank fixed the Medium Term Target for the 4% of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). He also had a scope of 2% less or more in it. Keeping in view the growth, the Reserve Bank had fixed this target at the inflation rate. “It is difficult to say anything about global economic conditions,” Ghosh said. SBI’s Group Chief Economic Advisor said that different opinions are being raised about the speed of the American economy. Some experts are saying that the GDP growth in the US may be sluggish this year, while some are anticipating the recession. Growth has been positive in the US for the past 10 years. It is rarely done when the US economy has been living in the positive zone for a long time and more slowdown.